Veteran financial market observers will tell you that anomalies in the financial markets last week point to some sort of black swan event on the horizon. This could be—cross your fingers and knock on wood—the signs of the long-awaited implosion of the U.S. Corporate government. It could also be the signal for a new Bretton Woods-style reboot of the world’s financial system.
To understand, take a look at these two graphs from September 19th. The first is the Repo market, and the second is SOFR (Secured Overnight Financing Rate)—the replacement for Libor.
The Repo market is basically a market where banks etc. use long-term high-quality financial instruments like U.S. government bonds as collateral to borrow here/now cash. The second is the rate at which banks lend to each other. The jump from 2% to 10% in the Repo market in a single day either means insiders think U.S. bonds are about to become worthless, or else some huge bank is about to go bust and so nobody wants to hand any cash over to them.
The second, SOFR, moved 282 basis points, in a market where people typically freak out over a move of even 20 basis points. The SOFR move, at the very least, indicates that a mega-bank or several mega-banks could not get money from other banks. This sort of move was last seen at the time of the Lehman shock.
The privately owned Fed has been trying to calm things down by offering to dish out $75 billion per day between now and October 10th. That’s interesting timing, because the U.S. Corporate government has a payment deadline on September 30th and would be given until around October 10th (or the 17th at the latest) to come up with the money if it failed to pay up on September 30th.
A British Royal family member explained, “The financial industry has been bankrupted by …